http://www.scribd.com/doc/7497…
Rank key:
5.) Seat is likely to go unless significant turn of events
4.) Leaning Democrat, expect to lose most of these seats unless there’s serious change
3.) True toss-up, slight wing could push either way, environment is critical to these races
2.) Leaning Republican, if there’s a wave, some could be in trouble
1.) Should be ok but if there’s a wave, we could see a surprise.Rank: 5
AK-AL, Don Young
AZ-01, Open
IL-11, Open
NJ-03, Open
NJ-07, Open
NY-13, Open
NY-25, Open
VA-11, Open
FL-24, Feeney
NY-29, Kuhl
MI-07, Walbert
Rank: 4MD-01, Open
NM-01, Open
OH-16, Open
CA-04, Open
NC-08, Hayes
CO-04, Musgrave
MI-09, Knollenberg
Rank: 3CT-04, Shays
IL-10, Kirk
LA-04, Open
MN-03, Open
MO-06, Barnes
NM-02, Open
NV-03, Porter
NY-26, Open
OH-15, Open
WA-08, Reichert
MO-09, Open
OH-01, Chabot
PA-03, English
MN-06, Bachmann
WY-AL, Open
AL-02, OpenRank: 2
CA-50, Bilbray
FL-08, Keller
FL-13, Buchanan
FL-21, Diaz-Balart
FL-25, Diaz-Balart
IL-06, Roskam
OH-02, Schmidt
PA-06, Gerlach
ID-01, Sali
VA-02, Drake
AZ-03, Shadegg
VA-05, Goode
TX-10, McCaul
NJ-05, Garrett
NE-02, Terry
KY-02, Open
NV-02, Heller
Rank: 1FL-15, Open
IL-18, Open
PA-18, Murphy
TX-07, Culberson
VA-10, Wolf
OH-07, OpenAs for Democratic seats:
Rank: 5
FL-16, Mahoney
Rank: 4None
Rank: 3AL-05, Open
NH-01, Shea-Porter
PA-10, Carney
TX-22, LampsonRank: 2
GA-08, Marshall
WI-08, Kagen
AZ-05, Mitchell
LA-06, Cazayoux
MS-01, Childers
OR-05, Open
PA-11, Kanjorski
KS-02, Boyda
Rank: 1IN-09, Hill
AZ-08, Giffords
CA-11, McNerney
IL-14, Foster
KY-03, Yarmuth
PA-04, Altimre
and a few of the 2’s(FL-08, FL-21, FL-25, ID-01, and NE-02). That will be a pickup of about 35 seats.
They have a good list of endangered Democrats, too — as of, say, January 2007. The only one we’ll lose for sure is Mahoney, a very recent addition, and maybe we’ll lose Kanjorski (sorry, in his ads he looks older than McSame, older than Sen Robert Byrd in the Anne Barth endorsement ad).
The only thing that gives their list of at-risk Dems any credibility at all is that it correctly omits Ciro Rodriguez in TX-23, who is not going to lose this time around.
Anyone notice how Washington Whispers reported slightly different set of Goner’s than this list has? Unless I’m reading this one and the one up here yesterday wrong. Are there two lists, or did Whisper’s report the wrong names? Whisper’s gave us Hayes and Porter, this list substitutes two NJ races. Whisper’s calls the Goner’s ‘Rating 1’, this list calls them ‘Rank 5’. Wonder why Whisper’s would put out different info? No big deal, it’s going to be bloodbath either way, but it is curious.
I’m surprised my old boss Kirsten Gillibrand of NY-20 didn’t make this list. I haven’t been following her race as closely as I should be, because I’ve been very busy. How’s her GOP challenger, Sandy Treadwell, faring up there?
Tom Cole is the best thing the GOP ever had, even more better than George Bush. Does he even hold a degree from an accredited university? MD1 should be easily held by Democrats for two reasons: Democrats have a registration advantage here and independents are moderates, not far out extremeists. Secondly, Kravotil hails from the Eastern Shore, which is an asset here.
Also, the Republican’s endangered list misses so many seats, yet I’ll leave it up to their brainless staff to figure them out.