The Complete GOP “Death List” is out

http://www.scribd.com/doc/7497…

Rank key:

5.) Seat is likely to go unless significant turn of events

4.) Leaning Democrat, expect to lose most of these seats unless there’s serious change

3.) True toss-up, slight wing could push either way, environment is critical to these races

2.) Leaning Republican, if there’s a wave, some could be in trouble

1.) Should be ok but if there’s a wave, we could see a surprise.

Rank: 5

AK-AL, Don Young

AZ-01, Open

IL-11, Open

NJ-03, Open

NJ-07, Open

NY-13, Open

NY-25, Open

VA-11, Open

FL-24, Feeney

NY-29, Kuhl

MI-07, Walbert

Rank: 4

MD-01, Open

NM-01, Open

OH-16, Open

CA-04, Open

NC-08, Hayes

CO-04, Musgrave

MI-09, Knollenberg

Rank: 3

CT-04, Shays

IL-10, Kirk

LA-04, Open

MN-03, Open

MO-06, Barnes

NM-02, Open

NV-03, Porter

NY-26, Open

OH-15, Open

WA-08, Reichert

MO-09, Open

OH-01, Chabot

PA-03, English

MN-06, Bachmann

WY-AL, Open

AL-02, Open

Rank: 2

CA-50, Bilbray

FL-08, Keller

FL-13, Buchanan

FL-21, Diaz-Balart

FL-25, Diaz-Balart

IL-06, Roskam

OH-02, Schmidt

PA-06, Gerlach

ID-01, Sali

VA-02, Drake

AZ-03, Shadegg

VA-05, Goode

TX-10, McCaul

NJ-05, Garrett

NE-02, Terry

KY-02, Open

NV-02, Heller

Rank: 1

FL-15, Open

IL-18, Open

PA-18, Murphy

TX-07, Culberson

VA-10, Wolf

OH-07, Open

As for Democratic seats:

Rank: 5

FL-16, Mahoney

Rank: 4

None

Rank: 3

AL-05, Open

NH-01, Shea-Porter

PA-10, Carney

TX-22, Lampson

Rank: 2

GA-08, Marshall

WI-08, Kagen

AZ-05, Mitchell

LA-06, Cazayoux

MS-01, Childers

OR-05, Open

PA-11, Kanjorski

KS-02, Boyda

Rank: 1

IN-09, Hill

AZ-08, Giffords

CA-11, McNerney

IL-14, Foster

KY-03, Yarmuth

PA-04, Altimre

 

21 thoughts on “The Complete GOP “Death List” is out”

  1. They have a good list of endangered Democrats, too — as of, say, January 2007. The only one we’ll lose for sure is Mahoney, a very recent addition, and maybe we’ll lose Kanjorski (sorry, in his ads he looks older than McSame, older than Sen Robert Byrd in the Anne Barth endorsement ad).

    The only thing that gives their list of at-risk Dems any credibility at all is that it correctly omits Ciro Rodriguez in TX-23, who is not going to lose this time around.

  2. Anyone notice how Washington Whispers reported slightly different set of Goner’s than this list has? Unless I’m reading this one and the one up here yesterday wrong. Are there two lists, or did Whisper’s report the wrong names? Whisper’s gave us Hayes and Porter, this list substitutes two NJ races. Whisper’s calls the Goner’s ‘Rating 1’, this list calls them ‘Rank 5’. Wonder why Whisper’s would put out different info? No big deal, it’s going to be bloodbath either way, but it is curious.

  3. I’m surprised my old boss Kirsten Gillibrand of NY-20 didn’t make this list. I haven’t been following her race as closely as I should be, because I’ve been very busy. How’s her GOP challenger, Sandy Treadwell, faring up there?

  4. Tom Cole is the best thing the GOP ever had, even more better than George Bush.  Does he even hold a degree from an accredited university?  MD1 should be easily held by Democrats for two reasons: Democrats have a registration advantage here and independents are moderates, not far out extremeists.  Secondly, Kravotil hails from the Eastern Shore, which is an asset here.

    Also, the Republican’s endangered list misses so many seats, yet I’ll leave it up to their brainless staff to figure them out.

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